imagine now is the early 20th century, you're in a United States leading investment banks to do research work, when a customer asks you: "Bell invented the phone, and now on the market, this investment opportunity?
How do you answer? If you want to research, Bell, you will find confidence in their products is not very big, but if you go to most of the world's leading communications companies---Western Union company,
they will bear this innovation is called "toy", Bell telephone, after all, was only used in local areas. No data exist to help with your analysis. You may abandon the Bell for the above reasons, but Bell was the world's "once" AT&T most powerful telecommunications companies, Western Union company driven to bankruptcy and acquired it.
over time to the beginning of 2007, if a client asked you: "have now by Sony beat Nintendo to launch new products to the market, their technology seems worse than Sony. This OK?
"If you were based on historical data, you would think that Nintendo is not worth investing in Sony's gaming machine is the best. But soon after, Nintendo's sales and earnings growth, market value than Sony. Why is that?
these and many other cases, are innovative access and innovation into successful companies there are huge investment opportunities.
How to conduct the analysis? Or investors, a researcher at the usual method is to collect historical data, decision trends and make predictions. The implied assumption that the past is a predictor of the future. Is to compare methods also implied an assumption here is that companies to imitate the actions taken by the best companies in the industry will be successful.
but this is for innovative access limited significance.
investors can actually be regulated through a new research program to analyze an innovative entry will be successful. Here there are two analysis steps, the first is an innovative signal appears, and the second is the existence of asymmetric competition.